It is a myth and a complete lie that the United States won the Cold War when the Soviet Union unexpectedly collapsed and Mikhail Gorbachev dissolved it on December 25, 1991. Throughout the rest of the 1990s , Washington’s elite, American academic scholars, and especially inept American civilian intelligence agencies have completely failed to anticipate and predict the rapid rise of Communist China at the turn of the century as a possible military AND economic superpower. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has now become a potentially much more dangerous adversary in 2021 than when the Soviet Union opposed the United States during the Cold War from 1945 to 1991.
One of the long-term goals of the PRC in its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative is not only the domination of the South China Sea and the “reunification” of Taiwan as well as the “neutralization” of much of the Western Pacific Ocean, but the semi-encirclement of India through indirect control of Nepal and Bhutan as well as Sri Lanka, Pakistan and possibly Bangladesh.
Their recent desire to establish a naval base in Bata, Equatorial Guinea, on the Atlantic coast of Africa is further indication that the PRC’s plans to establish itself as a dominant military and economic superpower by 2049 in addition to its three existing naval bases in Hambantota, Sri Lanka, Gwadar, Pakistan and Doraleh, Djibouti. I would not be surprised until 2030 if the PRC also tries to establish another naval base in Cuba or in an Eastern Caribbean country located between Puerto Rico and Trinidad. This notably includes Barbados and possibly Venezuela.
The failure of Washington’s economic policy since January 1993 to encourage investment by trillion-dollar companies and the wholesale export of five million US manufacturing jobs to mainland China, as Presidents Clinton advocated, Bush and Obama, has completely failed to produce any multiparty or liberal semi-liberalism. -democratic reform resembling Gorbachev’s 1986 policy glasnost within the PRC.
Communist China under President Xi Jinping has no intention of liberalizing or reforming its country’s political system, let alone apologizing for the mass murder by the Chinese Communist Party of forty-five million citizens. Chinese, died during the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), and another million executed under Mao during the Cultural Revolution (1966-76) or his shameless de facto military alliance with despotic and totalitarian North Korea under Kim Jong- a. It also includes the PRC’s violation of the 1997 Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong in 2019, the continued oppression (otherwiseization) and slavery of Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang province in the far northwest of China. China, and the “cultural genocide” or brutal assimilation (Otherwiseization) of Tibet since 1950.
Ukraine must not join NATO because the United States must “befriend” and improve diplomatic relations with Putin’s Russia and a possible post-Putin Russia as a future counterweight to the PRC. While some critics might mistakenly characterize this diplomatic approach as appeasement, I call it simple pragmatism or realpolitik.
Vladimir Putin is not Adolf Hitler with grandiose Machiavellian plans for Western military expansion and occupation of Eastern Europe because the former KGB lieutenant colonel has much more common sense and intelligence that the drugged and “eloquent” of Hitler. For the United States to improve diplomatic relations with Russia, Ukraine must not join NATO in order to ease possible military tensions between the United States, which is essentially NATO, and Russia. for many different reasons.
Many Americans, Canadians and Western Europeans fail to understand that Kiev, the capital of Ukraine and the cradle of East Slavic civilization along the Dnieper River, has always had special historical, commercial and cultural significance for the Russian national psyche. It was in Kiev that Vladimir the Great, the ruler of Kievan Russia and the East Slavs made up of both modern Ukrainians and Russians, first accepted Eastern Orthodox Christianity in 988.
Over the following centuries, Kiev became the foundation or springboard for the creation of modern Russia itself eventually ruled by Muscovy or Moscow, which considered itself the “third Rome” after the fall of Constantinople in 1453, and replaced more and more the city of Kiev with the Russians become the most dominant ethnic group among the East Slavs.
The “special relationship” between Ukraine and Russia is somewhat analogous to the “special relationship” between the UK and the US, but a much stronger and lasting relationship due to a shared border of 1,426 miles, of identical religions (Eastern Orthodoxy) and especially the duration: more than 1,000 years for good as for evil. While Russians often see Serbs as their “little brothers” in the Balkans, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine often resembles a quarrelsome middle-aged or elderly husband and wife. And Russia believes that divorce is not an option.
If Ukraine joined NATO, it would be the geographic equivalent of Canada or Mexico joining a PRC-led military alliance. The United States would naturally find this scenario both utterly unacceptable and intolerable, especially if there was a Communist Chinese naval base located along the Pacific coast in Acapulco, Mexico or Vancouver, Canada.
The United States must pragmatically recognize that Ukraine is clearly in the Russian orbit sphere, just as Central America or the Caribbean is in the United States according to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. Think Different would clearly be not only stupid, but also a sign of the imperial reach of Pax Americana, which replaced Pax Britannica in 1945. Also, the last time I looked at the map of Europe, Kiev is about 1500 miles away from London or the English Channel, unless some official or bureaucrat in Washington or Brussels absurdly regards the Black Sea as a far eastern extension of the Atlantic Ocean! Good luck with the illogical reasoning that Kiev or Odessa are geographically close to the North Atlantic Ocean.
The future inclusion of Ukraine in NATO from the Russian point of view would most certainly make NATO appear as a military alliance that is much more offensive than defensive. Whether Russia is paranoid about yet another land invasion or pretend being is subject to much speculation.
I strongly suspect that Russia’s paranoia falls somewhere between the first and the second, similar to the justified paranoia of the Krajina Serbs (Croats) from 1991 to 1995 towards the former ally of Nazi Germany and the Fascist Italy, Croatia ruled by Ante Pavelic from 1941 to 1945. However, unlike the United States, Russia has a long history of at least Twelve invasions, occupations and foreign interventions starting with the brutal Mongolian Golden Horde (1223-1473), Teutonic Knights (1240-42), Ottoman Turkey (1571), Poland (1605-18), Sweden (1610-17; 1707 ), France (1812), the Crimean War (1853-56), Japan (1905), Germany and Austria (1914-18), its former allies in World War I and Japan (1918- 22, Japan (1938) and the most destructive Nazi Germany (1941-1945) resulting in the deaths of at least Twenty millions Soviet soldiers and civilians.
Given the long history of repeated invasions of Russia and the potential fear of another, it has no desire, in the worst case, to be conquered and dismantled permanently, and suffer the same tragic fate as the former Yugoslavia, and ending up as a landlocked Serbia in a truncated semi-arctic territory located west and east of the remote Ural Mountains with the possible loss of much of from Eastern Siberia for the benefit of an expansionist Asian country.
Their “paranoia” indeed has a rational basis given their long history of invasions from the east, south and west, and NATO seems either totally oblivious to this fact or probably completely indifferent. From a Russian perspective, I can honestly understand why 100,000 or more Russian soldiers are currently massing along the southeast border of Ukraine or the Donbass, and I am neither a Russophile nor a Russophobic.
As far as I am concerned, the Russian occupation of Crimea in February 2014 is a fait accompli, which was historically part of Tsarist and Soviet Russia for over two centuries until 1991, and was not worth the life of any soldier. American or NATO despite the death of at least four million Ukrainians by famine terror during the catastrophic Holodomor (death from hunger) in 1932-33 under the Soviet Union of Joseph Stalin. This is strictly a Ukrainian-Russian concern, which frankly is not worth the start of World War III.
The best future diplomatic solution for Ukraine (along with Georgia) is to become a neutral country like Switzerland, Austria, Sweden or Finland, which would pose no offensive military threat to Russia. A second possible solution would be to imitate Serbia, which would like to become a member of the European Union, and not a member of NATO. A third possible solution is to follow the example of Belarus and remain a non-offensive military threat.
Ukraine must realize that neither the United States nor any other NATO country is likely to go to war with Russia for their occupation of Crimea or the southeastern part of Ukraine near Donetsk. . Moreover, there are clear limits to US military might, which the Pentagon absolutely does not understand, and Ukraine is a clear example of this. Endless wars will not produce endless peace.
The United States and NATO can sell Ukraine all the military weapons they need, such as the FGM-148 Javelin missiles and anti-tank launchers / helicopters as well as other non-lethal assistance, but Putin realizes that it is very doubtful that a Western country will risk World War III to defend Ukraine. Ironically, Russia does not currently view NATO’s three non-Slavic Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as a military threat. The same could be said for Norway, which is also a NATO country and shares a 121.6 mile border with Russia.
Ultimately, the Ukrainians will have to defend themselves if necessary without NATO and US troops on their soil. However, I think Ukraine should not join NATO because it will make their lives easier by living peacefully as a neutral country with Russia, and improve their standard of living due to less military spending for the rest. of the 21st century and beyond. The two countries must also mutually reconcile.
“If a ‘confused’ President Joseph Biden or a NATO political leader were to intervene militarily in Ukraine, it would be an extremely serious and reckless mistake, which could, hopefully, lead to massive Russian retaliatory cyberattacks (and counter-attacks). attacks), disastrous economic disruption during a global COVID-19 pandemic, and an inevitable slowdown or complete disruption of Russian natural gas flowing through much of Europe, although it may be cut of the “international” banking system.
The United States and Russia need not be involved in either a Second Cold War reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 or a nuclear conflict, which could unimaginably be much worse.
Robert L. Maronic / Roanoke Virginia
December 18, 2021